Futurology

Futurology

Expert & Leader of department: Leo A. Nefiodow

Futurology Expert

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As predicted by the long-wave theory, the healthcare market is proving to be the growth engine of the 21st century. The theory of long waves states that there are not only short and medium, but also long economic cycles, which proceed with regularity and last approximately half a century - the so-called Kondratiev-Cycles.

Kondratiev-Cycles are triggered by groundbreaking inventions - basic innovations. Basic innovations can be distinctly observed on the market. It is possible to measure how they develop, where new companies emerge, which new products enter the market, where research and development focus their attention. Applying these criteria today results in the assertion that the sixth Kondratiev-Cycle – according to the counting system used by economists – will be the cycle of Health. The demand for health will be the motor that will characterize the mainstream of economic and social development in the next 50 years. Almost every second new job created in the USA since 2000 originated in  healthcare, therefore in the sixth Kondratiev.

Experience shows that in every Kondratiev-Cycle, full employment is achieved in countries that are the leading actors. These countries exhaust the innovation and productivity potential of each cycle to their advantage, resulting in full employment.

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